Important dates: (blue dashed lines) delineating mask mandate / advice changes for “fully-vaccinated individuals”:
Comment: Why a 7-day moving average? Wisconsin tends to have cyclical patterns in testing results, with low spots typically on Mondays (this may be due to lower testing on weekends)
Various 7-day average trends
Estimated Active, split by Age group: Estimated recovery time from health experts varies between 10-20 days, with a nontrivial proportion of cases being long-term / on-going.
Definitions
Case fatality rate, etc: Need to add definitions and compute to table
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| July 10 2021 | 11660 | 53195 | 421 | 110 | 29 | 31 |
| July 11 2021 | 11663 | 53237 | 421 | 110 | 30 | 33 |
| July 12 2021 | 11663 | 53248 | 421 | 110 | 28 | 33 |
| July 13 2021 | 11667 | 53247 | 421 | 110 | 32 | 36 |
| July 14 2021 | 11674 | 53299 | 421 | 110 | 39 | 43 |
| July 15 2021 | 11677 | 53259 | 421 | 110 | 40 | 44 |
| July 16 2021 | 11682 | 53271 | 421 | 110 | 45 | 47 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 1 | 0.7 | 11.1% | 5 | 0.04% | 5 | 0.04% |
| 10-19 | 0 | 0.7 | 17.8% | 8 | 0.06% | 8 | 0.06% |
| 20-29 | 2 | 1.0 | 24.4% | 11 | 0.05% | 11 | 0.05% |
| 30-39 | 0 | 1.0 | 20% | 9 | 0.07% | 11 | 0.08% |
| 40-49 | 1 | 0.4 | 6.7% | 3 | 0.03% | 3 | 0.03% |
| 50-59 | 0 | 0.6 | 6.7% | 3 | 0.02% | 3 | 0.02% |
| 60-69 | 1 | 0.6 | 8.9% | 4 | 0.03% | 3 | 0.03% |
| 70+ | 0 | 0.0 | 4.4% | 2 | 0.02% | 3 | 0.03% |
| All ages | 5 | 5.0 | 100% | 45 | 0.04% | 47 | 0.04% |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| July 10 2021 | 7524 | 31394 | 304 | 95 | 7 | 9 |
| July 11 2021 | 7524 | 31411 | 305 | 95 | 6 | 9 |
| July 12 2021 | 7524 | 31430 | 305 | 95 | 6 | 9 |
| July 13 2021 | 7528 | 31432 | 305 | 95 | 10 | 11 |
| July 14 2021 | 7530 | 31460 | 305 | 95 | 12 | 13 |
| July 15 2021 | 7533 | 31426 | 304 | 95 | 15 | 15 |
| July 16 2021 | 7535 | 31441 | 304 | 95 | 17 | 17 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 0 | 0.3 | 23.5% | 4 | 0.05% | 4 | 0.05% |
| 10-19 | 0 | 0.0 | 0% | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| 20-29 | 0 | 0.1 | 11.8% | 2 | 0.03% | 1 | 0.01% |
| 30-39 | 0 | 0.3 | 11.8% | 2 | 0.02% | 2 | 0.02% |
| 40-49 | 1 | 0.1 | 11.8% | 2 | 0.03% | 2 | 0.03% |
| 50-59 | 0 | 0.4 | 17.6% | 3 | 0.03% | 3 | 0.03% |
| 60-69 | 0 | 0.1 | 5.9% | 1 | 0.01% | 1 | 0.01% |
| 70+ | 1 | 0.3 | 17.6% | 3 | 0.04% | 4 | 0.06% |
| All ages | 2 | 1.7 | 100% | 17 | 0.03% | 17 | 0.03% |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| July 10 2021 | 5901 | 21135 | 283 | 85 | 4 | 7 |
| July 11 2021 | 5901 | 21144 | 283 | 85 | 3 | 5 |
| July 12 2021 | 5901 | 21150 | 283 | 85 | 3 | 4 |
| July 13 2021 | 5901 | 21153 | 283 | 85 | 2 | 4 |
| July 14 2021 | 5902 | 21164 | 283 | 85 | 3 | 5 |
| July 15 2021 | 5903 | 21158 | 283 | 85 | 3 | 5 |
| July 16 2021 | 5903 | 21166 | 283 | 85 | 2 | 5 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 0 | 0.0 | 0% | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| 10-19 | 0 | 0.1 | 100% | 1 | 0.02% | 1 | 0.02% |
| 20-29 | 0 | 0.0 | 0% | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| 30-39 | 0 | 0.1 | 100% | 1 | 0.02% | 2 | 0.04% |
| 40-49 | 0 | 0.0 | 0% | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| 50-59 | 0 | 0.0 | -100% | -1 | -0.01% | 0 | 0% |
| 60-69 | 0 | 0.0 | 0% | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| 70+ | 0 | 0.0 | 0% | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| All ages | 0 | 0.3 | 100% | 1 | 0% | 3 | 0.01% |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| July 10 2021 | 12749 | 60295 | 461 | 89 | 13 | 15 |
| July 11 2021 | 12751 | 60313 | 461 | 89 | 14 | 15 |
| July 12 2021 | 12751 | 60329 | 461 | 89 | 13 | 15 |
| July 13 2021 | 12753 | 60347 | 461 | 89 | 15 | 17 |
| July 14 2021 | 12755 | 60403 | 461 | 89 | 16 | 19 |
| July 15 2021 | 12756 | 60363 | 462 | 89 | 17 | 19 |
| July 16 2021 | 12761 | 60354 | 462 | 89 | 21 | 23 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 0 | 0.0 | 0% | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| 10-19 | 0 | 0.0 | 19% | 4 | 0.02% | 4 | 0.02% |
| 20-29 | 0 | 0.1 | 4.8% | 1 | 0% | 1 | 0% |
| 30-39 | 3 | 0.6 | 19% | 4 | 0.03% | 4 | 0.03% |
| 40-49 | 0 | 0.0 | 9.5% | 2 | 0.01% | 3 | 0.02% |
| 50-59 | 0 | 0.4 | 19% | 4 | 0.03% | 5 | 0.04% |
| 60-69 | 2 | 0.6 | 23.8% | 5 | 0.04% | 5 | 0.04% |
| 70+ | 0 | 0.1 | 4.8% | 1 | 0.01% | 1 | 0.01% |
| All ages | 5 | 1.9 | 100% | 21 | 0.02% | 23 | 0.02% |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| July 10 2021 | 45373 | 363213 | 1596 | 315 | 105 | 143 |
| July 11 2021 | 45383 | 363440 | 1598 | 315 | 99 | 139 |
| July 12 2021 | 45394 | 363625 | 1601 | 315 | 103 | 144 |
| July 13 2021 | 45409 | 363833 | 1602 | 315 | 103 | 150 |
| July 14 2021 | 45414 | 364117 | 1604 | 315 | 103 | 146 |
| July 15 2021 | 45437 | 364378 | 1610 | 315 | 120 | 153 |
| July 16 2021 | 45457 | 364618 | 1611 | 315 | 139 | 166 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 1 | 1.6 | 7.9% | 11 | 0.02% | 13 | 0.02% |
| 10-19 | 1 | 1.6 | 9.4% | 13 | 0.02% | 13 | 0.02% |
| 20-29 | 4 | 2.4 | 21.6% | 30 | 0.03% | 35 | 0.03% |
| 30-39 | 6 | 3.4 | 21.6% | 30 | 0.04% | 37 | 0.05% |
| 40-49 | 2 | 1.7 | 12.2% | 17 | 0.03% | 21 | 0.03% |
| 50-59 | 4 | 1.4 | 13.7% | 19 | 0.03% | 22 | 0.03% |
| 60-69 | 1 | 0.3 | 5.8% | 8 | 0.01% | 11 | 0.02% |
| 70+ | 1 | 0.9 | 7.9% | 11 | 0.02% | 14 | 0.03% |
| All ages | 20 | 13.3 | 100% | 139 | 0.03% | 166 | 0.03% |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| July 10 2021 | 613748 | 2994235 | 32499 | 7357 | 947 | 1179 |
| July 11 2021 | 613778 | 2995535 | 32528 | 7357 | 869 | 1170 |
| July 12 2021 | 613895 | 2996468 | 32544 | 7357 | 901 | 1263 |
| July 13 2021 | 614057 | 2996972 | 32562 | 7360 | 984 | 1325 |
| July 14 2021 | 614243 | 2999663 | 32580 | 7365 | 1152 | 1442 |
| July 15 2021 | 614413 | 2999127 | 32636 | 7366 | 1296 | 1504 |
| July 16 2021 | 614597 | 2999881 | 32671 | 7372 | 1445 | 1603 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 13 | 12.9 | 8.6% | 124 | 0.02% | 135 | 0.02% |
| 10-19 | 31 | 19.4 | 12.7% | 184 | 0.02% | 204 | 0.03% |
| 20-29 | 35 | 28.4 | 21.2% | 307 | 0.04% | 329 | 0.04% |
| 30-39 | 36 | 29.6 | 19.5% | 282 | 0.04% | 317 | 0.04% |
| 40-49 | 15 | 17.4 | 12.2% | 177 | 0.03% | 200 | 0.03% |
| 50-59 | 21 | 15.3 | 10.7% | 155 | 0.02% | 166 | 0.02% |
| 60-69 | 19 | 11.3 | 8.7% | 126 | 0.02% | 139 | 0.02% |
| 70+ | 14 | 8.3 | 6.2% | 90 | 0.01% | 113 | 0.02% |
| All ages | 184 | 142.6 | 100% | 1445 | 0.02% | 1603 | 0.03% |
Source: Minnesota’s safe learning plan is very direct, very precise, with scientific basis. Determined on a local level.
Definitions (corresponding / similar to MN plan):
and a set of SUGGESTED GUIDELINES based on the Minnesota reference:
| Criteria 2wk | Criteria 2wk20s | Criteria daily7 | Suggestion |
|---|---|---|---|
| > 25 | > 30 | – | urge extra caution |
| > 28 | > 45* | decreasing | consider staying home and watching class recordings (rather than attending in-person) and visit online OH |
| > 28 | > 45* | steady to increasing | strongly encouraged to stay home and watch class recordings (attend in-person only as absolutely needed) and visit online OH. |
| > 30 | > 50 | decreasing | ’’ ’’ ’’ |
| > 30 | > 50 | steady to increasing | based on the cited criteria from Minnesota, safety of in-person classes no longer seems supportable |
*adjusted to reflect a corresponding proportion of the top cut-off.
| Eau Claire 2wk | Eau Claire 2wk10s | Eau Claire 2wk20s | Eau Claire current daily7 | Eau Claire past daily7 | Eau Claire posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4.5 | 5.9 | 5.3 | 5 | 1 | 41.7% |
Important Resources:
| Chippewa 2wk | Chippewa current daily7 | Chippewa past daily7 | Chippewa posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2.6 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 18.8% |
| Barron 2wk | Barron current daily7 | Barron past daily7 | Barron posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 5.7% |
| La Crosse 2wk | La Crosse 2wk10s | La Crosse 2wk20s | La Crosse current daily7 | La Crosse past daily7 | La Crosse posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1.9 | 2.4 | 0.5 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 21% |
| Dane 2wk | Dane 2wk10s | Dane 2wk20s | Dane current daily7 | Dane past daily7 | Dane posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 1.8 | 3.4 | 13.3 | 9.6 | 5.1% |
| Wisconsin 2wk | Wisconsin 2wk10s | Wisconsin 2wk20s | Wisconsin current daily7 | Wisconsin past daily7 | Wisconsin posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2.8 | 2.7 | 4.3 | 142.6 | 69.3 | 13.9% |
Important Resources:
I devised plots that are similar to those found, for example, at the following locations:
Masks Should I wear a mask in enclosed public spaces? Unequivocally, YES. References for reasoning, using a current (as of July 8) accumulation of over 70 references. A few of my favorites (modeling-wise) are:
A couple more in the works:
Media articles / letters summarizing scientific publications:
Predicting cumulative deaths in state
[1] "The number of cumulative deaths, at a lag of 21 days, are approximately 0.7 times number of cumulative cases to the 0.69 power."
[1] "We thus predict that on 2021-08-06 the cumulative number of deaths in WI will be 6559"
Comparing county-wide active case rates in counties with colleges