Daily

Column

Important dates: (blue dashed lines) delineating mask mandate / advice changes for “fully-vaccinated individuals”:

Comment: Why a 7-day moving average? Wisconsin tends to have cyclical patterns in testing results, with low spots typically on Mondays (this may be due to lower testing on weekends)

Eau Claire

Chippewa

Barron

La Crosse

Dane

Wisconsin

Column

Estimated Active, split by Age group: Estimated recovery time from health experts varies between 10-20 days, with a nontrivial proportion of cases being long-term / on-going.

  • First plot is conservative (10-day total) estimate
  • Second plot is 14-day total used in MN Safe-Learning plan

Eau Claire

Chippewa

Barron

La Crosse

Dane

Wisconsin

By the Numbers

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Definitions

Case fatality rate, etc: Need to add definitions and compute to table

Eau Claire

Eau Claire cumulative counts of COVID cases and outcomes
DATE POSITIVE NEGATIVE Hospitalization Yes DEATHS New In Last 10days New In Last 14days
July 10 2021 11660 53195 421 110 29 31
July 11 2021 11663 53237 421 110 30 33
July 12 2021 11663 53248 421 110 28 33
July 13 2021 11667 53247 421 110 32 36
July 14 2021 11674 53299 421 110 39 43
July 15 2021 11677 53259 421 110 40 44
July 16 2021 11682 53271 421 110 45 47
Age Group Daily New Cases Daily New Cases 7-day Average Percent of All Active Cases Actives (conservative estimate) Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan)
0-9 1 0.7 11.1% 5 0.04% 5 0.04%
10-19 0 0.7 17.8% 8 0.06% 8 0.06%
20-29 2 1.0 24.4% 11 0.05% 11 0.05%
30-39 0 1.0 20% 9 0.07% 11 0.08%
40-49 1 0.4 6.7% 3 0.03% 3 0.03%
50-59 0 0.6 6.7% 3 0.02% 3 0.02%
60-69 1 0.6 8.9% 4 0.03% 3 0.03%
70+ 0 0.0 4.4% 2 0.02% 3 0.03%
All ages 5 5.0 100% 45 0.04% 47 0.04%

Chippewa

Chippewa cumulative counts of COVID cases and outcomes
DATE POSITIVE NEGATIVE Hospitalization Yes DEATHS New In Last 10days New In Last 14days
July 10 2021 7524 31394 304 95 7 9
July 11 2021 7524 31411 305 95 6 9
July 12 2021 7524 31430 305 95 6 9
July 13 2021 7528 31432 305 95 10 11
July 14 2021 7530 31460 305 95 12 13
July 15 2021 7533 31426 304 95 15 15
July 16 2021 7535 31441 304 95 17 17
Age Group Daily New Cases Daily New Cases 7-day Average Percent of All Active Cases Actives (conservative estimate) Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan)
0-9 0 0.3 23.5% 4 0.05% 4 0.05%
10-19 0 0.0 0% 0 0% 0 0%
20-29 0 0.1 11.8% 2 0.03% 1 0.01%
30-39 0 0.3 11.8% 2 0.02% 2 0.02%
40-49 1 0.1 11.8% 2 0.03% 2 0.03%
50-59 0 0.4 17.6% 3 0.03% 3 0.03%
60-69 0 0.1 5.9% 1 0.01% 1 0.01%
70+ 1 0.3 17.6% 3 0.04% 4 0.06%
All ages 2 1.7 100% 17 0.03% 17 0.03%

Barron

Barron cumulative counts of COVID cases and outcomes
DATE POSITIVE NEGATIVE Hospitalization Yes DEATHS New In Last 10days New In Last 14days
July 10 2021 5901 21135 283 85 4 7
July 11 2021 5901 21144 283 85 3 5
July 12 2021 5901 21150 283 85 3 4
July 13 2021 5901 21153 283 85 2 4
July 14 2021 5902 21164 283 85 3 5
July 15 2021 5903 21158 283 85 3 5
July 16 2021 5903 21166 283 85 2 5
Age Group Daily New Cases Daily New Cases 7-day Average Percent of All Active Cases Actives (conservative estimate) Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan)
0-9 0 0.0 0% 0 0% 0 0%
10-19 0 0.1 100% 1 0.02% 1 0.02%
20-29 0 0.0 0% 0 0% 0 0%
30-39 0 0.1 100% 1 0.02% 2 0.04%
40-49 0 0.0 0% 0 0% 0 0%
50-59 0 0.0 -100% -1 -0.01% 0 0%
60-69 0 0.0 0% 0 0% 0 0%
70+ 0 0.0 0% 0 0% 0 0%
All ages 0 0.3 100% 1 0% 3 0.01%

La Crosse

La Crosse cumulative counts of COVID cases and outcomes
DATE POSITIVE NEGATIVE Hospitalization Yes DEATHS New In Last 10days New In Last 14days
July 10 2021 12749 60295 461 89 13 15
July 11 2021 12751 60313 461 89 14 15
July 12 2021 12751 60329 461 89 13 15
July 13 2021 12753 60347 461 89 15 17
July 14 2021 12755 60403 461 89 16 19
July 15 2021 12756 60363 462 89 17 19
July 16 2021 12761 60354 462 89 21 23
Age Group Daily New Cases Daily New Cases 7-day Average Percent of All Active Cases Actives (conservative estimate) Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan)
0-9 0 0.0 0% 0 0% 0 0%
10-19 0 0.0 19% 4 0.02% 4 0.02%
20-29 0 0.1 4.8% 1 0% 1 0%
30-39 3 0.6 19% 4 0.03% 4 0.03%
40-49 0 0.0 9.5% 2 0.01% 3 0.02%
50-59 0 0.4 19% 4 0.03% 5 0.04%
60-69 2 0.6 23.8% 5 0.04% 5 0.04%
70+ 0 0.1 4.8% 1 0.01% 1 0.01%
All ages 5 1.9 100% 21 0.02% 23 0.02%

Dane

Dane cumulative counts of COVID cases and outcomes
DATE POSITIVE NEGATIVE Hospitalization Yes DEATHS New In Last 10days New In Last 14days
July 10 2021 45373 363213 1596 315 105 143
July 11 2021 45383 363440 1598 315 99 139
July 12 2021 45394 363625 1601 315 103 144
July 13 2021 45409 363833 1602 315 103 150
July 14 2021 45414 364117 1604 315 103 146
July 15 2021 45437 364378 1610 315 120 153
July 16 2021 45457 364618 1611 315 139 166
Age Group Daily New Cases Daily New Cases 7-day Average Percent of All Active Cases Actives (conservative estimate) Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan)
0-9 1 1.6 7.9% 11 0.02% 13 0.02%
10-19 1 1.6 9.4% 13 0.02% 13 0.02%
20-29 4 2.4 21.6% 30 0.03% 35 0.03%
30-39 6 3.4 21.6% 30 0.04% 37 0.05%
40-49 2 1.7 12.2% 17 0.03% 21 0.03%
50-59 4 1.4 13.7% 19 0.03% 22 0.03%
60-69 1 0.3 5.8% 8 0.01% 11 0.02%
70+ 1 0.9 7.9% 11 0.02% 14 0.03%
All ages 20 13.3 100% 139 0.03% 166 0.03%

Wisconsin

Wisconsin cumulative counts of COVID cases and outcomes
DATE POSITIVE NEGATIVE Hospitalization Yes DEATHS New In Last 10days New In Last 14days
July 10 2021 613748 2994235 32499 7357 947 1179
July 11 2021 613778 2995535 32528 7357 869 1170
July 12 2021 613895 2996468 32544 7357 901 1263
July 13 2021 614057 2996972 32562 7360 984 1325
July 14 2021 614243 2999663 32580 7365 1152 1442
July 15 2021 614413 2999127 32636 7366 1296 1504
July 16 2021 614597 2999881 32671 7372 1445 1603
Age Group Daily New Cases Daily New Cases 7-day Average Percent of All Active Cases Actives (conservative estimate) Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan)
0-9 13 12.9 8.6% 124 0.02% 135 0.02%
10-19 31 19.4 12.7% 184 0.02% 204 0.03%
20-29 35 28.4 21.2% 307 0.04% 329 0.04%
30-39 36 29.6 19.5% 282 0.04% 317 0.04%
40-49 15 17.4 12.2% 177 0.03% 200 0.03%
50-59 21 15.3 10.7% 155 0.02% 166 0.02%
60-69 19 11.3 8.7% 126 0.02% 139 0.02%
70+ 14 8.3 6.2% 90 0.01% 113 0.02%
All ages 184 142.6 100% 1445 0.02% 1603 0.03%

Column

Source: Minnesota’s safe learning plan is very direct, very precise, with scientific basis. Determined on a local level.

Definitions (corresponding / similar to MN plan):

  • 2wk: Two-week case total (most recent 14 days), rate per 10K of county population
  • 2wk10s: Approximate two-week case total, rate per 10K of 10-19 population
  • 2wk20s: Approximate two-week case total, rate per 10K of 20-29 population; since over 50% of students on campus are in early 20s
  • daily7: Daily new-case running average (average over 7 days)
  • posratedaily7 (as a percent): Daily positive-test rate, running average (average over 7 days)

and a set of SUGGESTED GUIDELINES based on the Minnesota reference:

Criteria 2wk Criteria 2wk20s Criteria daily7 Suggestion
> 25 > 30 urge extra caution
> 28 > 45* decreasing consider staying home and watching class recordings (rather than attending in-person) and visit online OH
> 28 > 45* steady to increasing strongly encouraged to stay home and watch class recordings (attend in-person only as absolutely needed) and visit online OH.
> 30 > 50 decreasing ’’ ’’ ’’
> 30 > 50 steady to increasing based on the cited criteria from Minnesota, safety of in-person classes no longer seems supportable

*adjusted to reflect a corresponding proportion of the top cut-off.

Eau Claire

Eau Claire 2wk Eau Claire 2wk10s Eau Claire 2wk20s Eau Claire current daily7 Eau Claire past daily7 Eau Claire posratedaily7
4.5 5.9 5.3 5 1 41.7%

Important Resources:

Chippewa

Chippewa 2wk Chippewa current daily7 Chippewa past daily7 Chippewa posratedaily7
2.6 1.7 0.4 18.8%

Barron

Barron 2wk Barron current daily7 Barron past daily7 Barron posratedaily7
0.7 0.3 0.4 5.7%

La Crosse

La Crosse 2wk La Crosse 2wk10s La Crosse 2wk20s La Crosse current daily7 La Crosse past daily7 La Crosse posratedaily7
1.9 2.4 0.5 1.9 0.4 21%

Dane

Dane 2wk Dane 2wk10s Dane 2wk20s Dane current daily7 Dane past daily7 Dane posratedaily7
3 1.8 3.4 13.3 9.6 5.1%

Wisconsin

Wisconsin 2wk Wisconsin 2wk10s Wisconsin 2wk20s Wisconsin current daily7 Wisconsin past daily7 Wisconsin posratedaily7
2.8 2.7 4.3 142.6 69.3 13.9%

Important Resources:

Cumulative

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Eau Claire

Chippewa

Barron

La Crosse

Dane

Wisconsin

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Eau Claire

Chippewa

Barron

La Crosse

Dane

Wisconsin

References

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Reliable Updated Visuals

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Modeling

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Predicting cumulative deaths in state

  • WI correpondence between Cumulative cases and deaths (at time lag)
    • Starting with late May, after daily tests regularly above 6000
[1] "The number of  cumulative deaths, at a lag of 21 days, are approximately 0.7 times number of cumulative cases to the 0.69 power."
[1] "We thus predict that on 2021-08-06 the cumulative number of deaths in WI will be 6559"

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Comparing county-wide active case rates in counties with colleges

  • Portage county (Stevens Point): gray
  • Eau Claire county (Eau Claire): blue
  • Dane county (Madison): green
  • La Crosse county (La Crosse): red